Experienced Pathway Analysis - Adviser Losses and Consequences
Our ongoing analysis of ASIC’s ‘one-off, point-in-time’ Financial Adviser Register (FAR) data, highlighting the advisers progression with the Experienced Pathway and 2026 qualifications, now paints the clearest picture yet of the seismic shift heading toward the financial advice profession.
With the 1 January 2026 education standards rapidly approaching, the data shows the financial adviser market is on the verge of a significant contraction and one that will redefine adviser capacity, business models, and consumer access to advice.
Comparing ASIC’s November point-in-time data with today’s FAR, we have identified the three clear adviser cohorts (see also chart below):
5,179 advisers intend to use the Experienced Pathway (EP)
6,469 advisers say they will not use the EP
3,981 advisers have provided no information
The responses above total 15,629 adviser entries, exceeding the actual adviser population of 15,459 due to multi-authorised advisers supplying conflicting data to ASIC. Note: We adjust for these duplicates in the “No Info” segment.
We have also broken the data down further into sectors by commencement dates of advisers, to assist in determining the potential of additional advisers who may be able to proceed with the EP. We have also segmented by qualifications, noting that ASIC’s “qualification progressing toward standards” flag does not guarantee an adviser will be fully qualified for 2026.
Our analysis breaks the data into three core segments:
A — Advisers Intending to Use the Experienced Pathway
5,179 advisers have said they will rely on the EP.
59 advisers passed the Financial Adviser Exam after the cut-off (Oct 2022) to qualify for the EP
183 advisers appear to have commenced after Jan 2011 (potentially ineligible)
FAR commencement dates can be unreliable, so EP declarations will be the stronger indicator — but not all who said “Yes” will qualify.
B — Advisers Who Will Not Use the EP
6,469 advisers have declared they will not use the EP, and 91% hold qualifications counting toward 2026.
This group appears relatively stable
Together, cohorts A and B total 11,648 advisers and we would expect the greater majority to continue into 2026
C — No Info - Advisers Who Have Not Declared Their Intentions
After adjusting for duplicates, some 3,811 advisers fall into the “No Info” category:
1,523 advisers potentially qualify for the EP (commenced pre-Dec 2011)
An additional 1,396 advisers with qualifications that indicate they may progress toward 2026
2919 advisers in this cohort may able to proceed into 2026.
This group remains the largest uncertainty.
Padua’s Forecast for 2026
A ‘best case’ Adviser Population of 14,567 and this is currently 892 fewer than today’s total of 15,459.
When a series of ‘what if’ scenarios are performed, the net loss can easily jump in excess of 1,600.
Adding together the most realistic outcomes across all categories the net loss range will be between 1,100 and 1,500.
Factors that can distort the numbers
The traditional December resignation spike
Advisers gaining qualifications only to exit shortly after - this occurred when the first ‘FASEA’ Financial Adviser Exams commenced
EP declarations failing due to service periods being checked
November Financial Adviser exam resulting in a surge of new entrants helping to soften the losses
Last-minute December FAR updates distorting the current view of the data
What this Means for the Advice Profession
A significant drop in advisers will have immediate implications:
Higher client loads per adviser
Longer turnaround times for advice
Increased cost-to-serve pressures
A fight for new advisers and to bring back experienced advisers
Reduced consumer access to professional advice.
We expect that advisers and licensees will seek need to leverage an advice generation platform that:
Produces high-quality, compliant advice quickly
Enables advisers to scale from 100 clients to 200+ without additional staff
Eliminates administrative drag
Reduces the cost of producing advice
Improves turnaround times
Supports consistent, repeatable, defendable advice at scale
A highly efficient advice generation is no longer a “nice to have”.
Taken from 7b of Licensee Deep Dive - Note, there are other dashboards on this page enabling additional data to be analysed.
